Predictions for the Upcoming Season

With the season less than a month away and the teams very much set I thought I would throw my hat in the ring to give my predictions for the upcoming season.  I will run through what I think the ladder will end up with, how the playoffs will play out and who will win what award and like all other predictions I’m sure that it will all be ruined halfway through the season.  And away we go!

Season Ladder

1.        New Zealand Breakers

PG – Cedric Jackson

SG – Daryl Corletto

SF – Thomas Abercrombie

PF – Mika Vukona

C – Alex Pledger

Key bench – CJ Bruton, Dillon Boucher, Will Hudson

The reigning premiers may have lost star Gary Wilkinson but adding Will Hudson and the continuing progress of Alex Pledger make up for the loss.  Retaining Cedric Jackson was imperative and will be the front runner for another premiership.

2.       Perth Wildcats

PG – Damian Martin

SG – Kevin Lisch

SF – Jesse Wagstaff

PF – Shawn Redhage

C – Matthew Knight

Key bench – Brad Robbins, Everard Bartlett

The Wildcats don’t have the immense depth like they did last season but they still have a fantastic core and a great head coach.  Unfortunately for Perth fans the gap between them and New Zealand has widened.

3.       Adelaide 36ers

PG – Adam Gibson

SG – CJ Massingale

SF – Stephen Weigh

PF – Daniel Johnson

C – Luke Schenscher

Key bench – Jason Cadee, Mitch Creek, Anthony Petrie

Adelaide had arguably (and in this bloggist’s mind) the best front court in the league with Weigh, Johnson and Diamon Simpson.  So again it looks like they may have the best front court because they fit so well.  Budding superstar Daniel Johnson has a fantastic outside shot which should free up space for the inside orientated Schenscher, making it a great fit.  Coupled with a Boomer starting point guard and quality depth this team will definitely be in the playoffs

4.       Wollongong Hawks

PG – Adris Deleon

SG – Lance Hurdle

SF – Glen Saville

PF – Oscar Forman

C – Larry Davidson

Key bench – Rhys Martin, Tim Coenraad

My biggest climber and biggest reach are the Hawks who really didn’t look like an NBL team for a lot of last season.  That all changes with the addition of the exciting Deleon and the potentially exciting Hurdle.  I really want this combination work as we haven’t seen a elite import backcourt since... I don’t really know.  Davidson impressed me in the games I saw of him and Oscar Forman is really making strides in being a great stretch power forward.

5.       Cairns Taipans

PG – Jamar Wilson

SG – Clint Steindl

SF – Brad Hill

PF – Alex Loughton

C – Cameron Tragardh

Key bench – Shane Edwards, Dusty Rychart

That line-up may not be the most exciting on paper and having Tragardh at the centre position isn’t the best fit but dammit this team just knows how to grind out games.  It will be an uphill battle to stay close to playoff contention but the way Wilson carried this team at times was glorious.  The Taipans and Crocs are interchangeable at the moment between fifth and sixth place.

6.        Townsville Crocodiles

PG – Jason Forte

SG – Peter Crawford

SF – Todd Blanchfield

PF – Jacob Holmes

C – Curtis Withers

Key bench – Russell Hinder, Mitch Norton, Michael Cedar

Withers is small and Forte is tall but if these two imports can pull it together this team will surprise opponents.  Peter Crawford must be sky high with his Boomers selection, coupled with Blanchfield’s potential and Holmes’ resurgence there may be a chance that this team sneaks into the playoffs.  Their bench is terribly thin though.

7.       Sydney Kings

PG – Corin Henry

SG – Aaron Bruce

SF – James Harvey

PF – Darnell Lazare

C – Ian Crosswhite

Key bench – Ben Madgen, Kevin Smith, Tom Garlepp

As much as I like Crosswhite and Harvey this team has taken a huge step backwards from the previous season.  Granted last season’s team was pretty bad but they don’t look good at the moment.  I hope the highlights of Henry’s season in Denmark carries over here while Lazare needs to do his best Jerai Grant impression for this team to scrap off the bottom of the ladder.

8.       Melbourne Tigers

PG – Kevin Braswell

SG – Chris Goulding

SF – Tommy Greer

PF – Adam Ballinger

C – Seth Scott

Key bench – Liam Rush, Lucas Walker, Matt Burston

I hope this team has a lot of eggs and they all go in the “Adam Ballinger from 2005-ish” basket because this team looks horrid.  They have no back court depth, Kevin Braswell is not a legit starting point guard and Seth Scott is very, very untested.  At least Nate Tomlinson will get some quality court time but I have a feeling head coach Chris Anstey will stuff this up.  Hey, the only way is up, right?

NBL Playoffs

I don’t see anyone knocking off the Breakers at this point in time, but I can see an upset with Adelaide taking out Perth in the first round.  New Zealand to win in straight sets.

NBL Award Winners

Most Valuable Player – He should have won it last season so Cedric Jackson will not be denied for this one.  I won’t be surprised he gets that elusive triple double at some time through the year.

Coach of the Year – His team is a little thin but if Cairns can sneak into the playoffs definitely look to Aaron Fearne to take home the trophy.

Rookie of the Year – There isn’t much competition this season so it is up to the two Cairns guys, Clint Steindl and Cameron Gliddon to fight over.

Most Improved Player – It may have been Daniel Johnson last season but I can see Stephen Weigh really step up and become a night-in, night-out contributor to the upstart 36ers.

Defensive Player of the Year – There will be only two things that can stand in Damian Martin’s way of taking out another DPOY award – injury and voter fatigue.  I hope the voters don’t try and pick someone else just because they aren’t Damian Martin.